Adobe predicts US holiday online spend to hit USD $253.4 billion

Adobe has forecast that consumers in the United States will spend a record USD $253.4 billion online during the 2025 holiday season, representing a 5.3% year-on-year increase.

The analysis draws on Adobe Analytics data, covering over 1 trillion visits to retail sites, 100 million SKUs, and 18 major product categories, providing a broad view of U.S. eCommerce trends for the period from 1 November to 31 December 2025.

Spending milestones

Adobe's latest projections indicate that for the first time there will be 10 days during the 2025 holiday period when online spending tops USD $5 billion daily, compared to seven such days last year.

Cyber Week, which includes Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday, is forecast to contribute USD $43.7 billion, accounting for 17.2% of total holiday season spending and marking a 6.3% year-on-year increase.

Cyber Monday is set to maintain its status as the peak online shopping day, with spending forecast to reach USD $14.2 billion, up 6.3% on the previous year. Black Friday is expected to see USD $11.7 billion in online purchases, up 8.3% year-on-year, while Thanksgiving Day spending is estimated at USD $6.4 billion, a 4.9% increase from 2024.

Mobile shopping and BNPL growth

The trend towards mobile shopping continues, with mobile devices projected to account for 56.1% of total holiday online spend, which equates to USD $142.7 billion, up 8.5% year-on-year. In 2020, the share was just 40%.

Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) services are also predicted to play a larger role, facilitating USD $20.2 billion in holiday purchases-an 11% rise on 2024. This is an increase of roughly USD $2 billion compared to last year. On Cyber Monday, BNPL usage is expected to surpass USD $1 billion, with Black Friday's BNPL volume projected at USD $761.8 million, up 11% year-on-year. The analysis further notes that 79% of BNPL spending will be conducted via mobile, amounting to USD $15.6 billion, up 8.3% on the previous year.

Discounts and consumer trends

Significant discounts are anticipated across a range of categories, with price reductions of up to 28%. Electronics are expected to see discounts peaking at 28% off, while toys may reach 27% off listed prices. Apparel, TVs, computers, sporting goods, appliances, and furniture will also see substantial markdowns, with the deepest discounts typically occurring during Cyber Week. Shoppers looking for the best deals may opt to purchase sporting goods on Thanksgiving, TVs, toys, and appliances on Black Friday, and electronics, apparel, and computers on Cyber Monday.

Consumers are not solely seeking low prices but are also 'trading up' for premium products in certain categories. According to Adobe, the share of units sold for higher-priced items will rise by 56% for sporting goods, 52% for electronics, 39% for appliances, 32% for personal care, and 26% for tools and home improvement. Conversely, there will be declines in groceries and furniture, where consumers are choosing lower-priced options.

Leading categories

Electronics, apparel, and furniture are set to lead online sales, generating a combined 53.7% of total holiday eCommerce spend. Electronics are projected at USD $57.5 billion (up 4% year-on-year), apparel at USD $47.6 billion (up 4.4%), and furniture at USD $31.1 billion (up 6.5%). Groceries (USD $23.5 billion, up 9.2%) and cosmetics (USD $8.4 billion, up 9.1%) are anticipated to see higher growth rates among smaller categories.

The analysis predicts strong demand for home-related products, with notable increases in online sales of power tools, home security products, TVs, refrigerators, smart home devices, and health monitoring equipment such as activity trackers and smartwatches. The gaming category is also predicted to see robust sales of consoles and games.

Influence of AI and social media

Generative AI services and chatbots are altering online shopping habits, with Adobe anticipating a 520% year-on-year rise in AI-driven traffic to retail sites. This increase follows a 1,300% year-on-year rise in the 2024 season. AI tools are being used most commonly for product research, recommendations, deal discovery, and gift inspiration. In a survey by Adobe of 5,000 U.S. consumers, over one-third reported using AI-powered services in their shopping, with 53% citing research, 40% product recommendations, 36% finding deals, and 30% gift inspiration as top uses.

Social media advertising is expected to act as a significant driver of holiday eCommerce, with revenue attributed to social traffic forecast to grow by 51% year-on-year. Growth among affiliates and partners, including social media influencers, is projected at 14% year-on-year. Social channels are becoming increasingly important in influencing purchase decisions, alongside traditional paid search and email marketing.

"Adobe expects U.S. online sales to hit $253.4 billion this holiday season (Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, 2025), which represents 5.3% growth year-over-year (YoY). A record 10 days will see consumers spend over $5 billion in a single day (up from 7 days last year). Cyber Week (the 5-day period including Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday) is expected to drive 17.2% of overall spend this season, at $43.7 billion (up 6.3% YoY)."

Adobe's findings indicate a growing emphasis on flexible payment, mobile-first purchasing, competitive pricing, and the use of new technologies and digital channels to influence consumer behaviour in the peak shopping season.