Coupa index shows US spending steady despite sector shifts

Coupa has published its Q3 2026 Business Spend Index, showing that four of five major US sectors maintained or increased spending commitments. The report is based on USD $10.5 trillion in business-to-business transactions.

The index tracks spending commitments across High Technology, Manufacturing, Business Services, Healthcare & Life Sciences, and Financial Services. It uses approved purchase orders, signed contracts, and executed renewals to measure business intent at the point commitments are made.

High Technology recorded continued growth through the first half of the year despite volatility in equity markets. Spending commitments in the sector rose 6.5% by June, even though the Nasdaq had fallen 13.2% from its October 2025 close to a March 2026 low.

Within technology spending, the mix of outlays changed. IT services increased from 8.8% to 14.1% of High Technology spend between the second half of 2023 and the first half of 2026, while software's share fell from 12.5% to 8.6%, although actual software spending still increased.

The figures suggest a shift in how companies are allocating technology budgets. More spending is moving toward services linked to putting artificial intelligence systems into use, rather than packaged software alone.

Manufacturing holds

Manufacturing also remained firm despite the introduction of a 10% US import surcharge. Every month of 2026 was higher than any month in the previous 18 months, with February, the weakest month of the year, still above the sector's earlier peak.

The manufacturing index reading for February stood at 156.5, compared with the previous high of 152.5. This suggests many purchasing decisions had already been locked in before tariff changes took effect, limiting the immediate impact on underlying order volumes.

Financial Services showed a different pattern. Spending in banking and related activities reached an index reading of 121.9 in April, the highest level since the index began in 2022, before falling for three straight months to 115.4 in July.

That represented a 5.3% decline from the April peak, although July remained above every reading recorded before 2025. The sector still maintained a baseline level of expenditure tied to compliance and security, even as other projects eased.

Healthcare falls

Healthcare & Life Sciences was the only tracked sector to contract. Spending fell 2.8% between February and June, with May to June flat, amid federal funding reductions and broader policy changes.

Coupa linked the decline to two policy developments: the lapse of Affordable Care Act subsidies at the start of the year and a 34% year-on-year fall in National Institutes of Health grants to outside researchers. The report said discretionary spending in the sector can be cut more quickly than longer-term committed capital.

Business Services was broadly stable. Readings stayed between 129.3 and 131.7 from January through April, then moved above the full 2025 range in May and June, extending a plateau in place since January 2024.

Part of that level reflected price increases. Services costs rose between 2.9% and 3.2% year on year through June, according to the report.

The index is designed as a leading measure of corporate activity because it captures commitments before spending appears in standard economic releases. The baseline is January 2022, set at 100, meaning a reading of 156.5 indicates commitments 56.5% above that level.

Kevin Iaquinto, Chief Marketing Officer at Coupa, said the aim was to give procurement and finance executives an earlier view of shifts in spending.

"Procurement and finance leaders are asked to read the economy from indicators that arrive late and then get revised," Iaquinto said.

"The Coupa Business Spend Index gives them a read built from trillions of dollars in commitments across Coupa's massive buyer and supplier network, so they can be strategic about where the money goes rather than reacting after the fact. This is exactly the kind of real-time intelligence we're putting to work in Coupa's AI agents - so finance and procurement leaders aren't just reading the economy, they're acting on it as it happens, building resilient businesses with healthy margins," he said.

He also pointed to movement between categories within technology spending and the response to tariff exposure. "These are exactly the kind of inflection points where autonomous, agent-driven spend controls compound the advantage, catching share shifts and tariff exposure in real time rather than in next quarter's close," Iaquinto said.