Production, service roles face highest automation risk

Planera has published a study ranking manual occupations in the US by their exposure to automation. The research found that metal and plastic patternmakers face the highest risk.

Patternmakers carry a 99% automation risk, with employment in the occupation projected to fall by 24.4% before 2034. In 2024, 1,570 people were employed in the role, which had a median annual wage of USD $54,540.

The study examined more than 55 physical and manual occupations, excluding office, computer and technology roles. It focused on trades, production, logistics, healthcare and service jobs, using automation risk, employment levels, employment change and median annual pay as its main measures.

Production Jobs

Production roles dominate the top of the ranking. After patternmakers, loading and moving machine operators in underground mining ranked second, with a 97% automation risk, 6,130 workers employed and a median annual wage of USD $68,860.

Third were milling and planing machine setters, operators and tenders in metal and plastic, with a 91% risk rating. Planera listed 13,810 people in those jobs and a median annual wage of USD $48,310.

Other production roles in the top 10 included forging machine setters, operators and tenders in metal and plastic at 87%; grinding and polishing workers by hand at 86%; print binding and finishing workers at 86%; drilling and boring machine tool setters, operators and tenders in metal and plastic at 85%; and sewing machine operators at 85%.

The figures point to a broad concentration of automation exposure in factory and workshop settings, where repetitive physical tasks have long been targets for mechanisation. The study noted that production appears especially exposed as machines take on a growing share of manual labour.

Beyond Factories

Not all of the most exposed roles were in manufacturing. Graders and sorters of agricultural products ranked fourth, with an 89% risk rating, 26,870 workers employed and a median annual wage of USD $35,430.

Cashiers ranked fifth, making retail the most prominent service occupation on the list. More than 3.1 million people were employed as cashiers in 2024, far more than any other occupation in the top 10. The role carried an 88% risk rating and a median annual wage of USD $31,190.

That makes cashiers especially significant in labour market terms, even though the role did not rank at the very top by percentage risk. Because so many people work in the occupation, any long-term shift toward checkout automation would affect far more workers than changes in several smaller industrial roles.

The data also shows that many of the jobs most exposed to automation are relatively low paid. Among the occupations highlighted, cashiers were the lowest paid, followed by agricultural graders and sorters.

Underground mining machine operators are also expected to face a sharp contraction, with employment projected to decline by 22.3% in the coming years. For milling and planing machine setters, operators and tenders, the projected fall was 14.4%.

The report framed its findings as a counterpoint to discussion of artificial intelligence and office work, arguing that hands-on occupations are also facing substantial change. It suggested mainstream coverage has paid less attention to manual and industrial jobs despite evidence of rising automation pressure in those sectors.

A company spokesperson commented on the findings.

"The conversation about automation has been almost entirely focused on office workers and knowledge jobs, but the production floor is quietly going through an equally significant shift. Service and white-collar occupations are all comparatively likely to be displaced, yet manufacturing and production workers rarely feature in mainstream coverage. Patternmakers and machine operators don't make headlines the way software engineers do, but the people in these roles are facing some of the most immediate disruption in the entire job market," said an automation expert at Planera.